American election 2024 Eight critical issues facing the United States

This is my second article on the American election. It examines eight key problems facing the United States and how the two major parties purport to deal with them. Subsequent articles will take up some of these in more detail.

Debt: The United States government is heavily in debt, with this reaching the same level as GDP, $35 trillion. The debt increases if the government runs a deficit. The extent of this deficit depends on expenditure levels and revenues. Usually the political definition of the deficit is not really an issue. Rather the details of taxes and programs lead to the deficit of the budget. The current expenditure patterns and tax laws lead to a large deficit over the next ten years.

Although the Republicans make the greatest argument against the size of the budget deficit, their main relevant policies are for lower taxes and higher military expenditures, thus actually increasing the deficit. The Democrats are usually for higher taxes on the wealthy and for large social welfare programs. Neither party is willing to take up the issue of growing debt.

The world economy: The tremendous size of the America economy, its dominance after World War II, led to it running the world economy. This domination continues through the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve System, the US controlled IMF, the American capital markets, and the great American banks.The United States government since WW2 has controlled international finance largely through maintaining a strong dollar.

The Republican Party apparently believes in a weak dollar that would result in reduced imports and greater exports. The Democrats based on their record stand for a strong dollar. The main instrument for a weak dollar is higher US tariffs; the adverse effects of this are many. The Republicans' way to weaken the dollar is to raise tariffs resulting in higher prices for Americans, reducing international trade, probably slowing the world economy. The Democrats are not very clear about tariffs and trade policy.

Education: While international comparisons are difficult, thetesting done by the OECD countries and selected others indicates that at the upper elementary school and secondary level the United States is below the median performance of all of the tested countries. On the other hand, the American tertiary education system is a jewel. A group of these universities are the centers of great research and leadership development that has spread over the world. How to improve the lower grade levels of education is a central problem for the United States.

The Republicans are essentially uninterested in this problem.They see the schools as transmitters of values that they do not like. They are not concerned with the differences in education opportunities among different racial groups. The Democrats are more interested in correcting differences and establishing ways to finance low income students to attend university.

Improving the quality of education for everyone is a challenge for the United States that has attracted little interest in the election campaign. Perhaps the most important issue in the United States, it attracts no interest in the election. 

Healthcare: There are few matters in the United States where the citizens are in more agreement than the condemnation of the difficulties of dealing with the American healthcare system.Only the rich are content. Pray that you do not get sick. The medical care is excellent. The pharma companies have produced a steady stream of remarkable products. The financial arrangements defy common sense. Public health is not well supported despite the realization that the greatest improvements in health come from vaccinations, clean water, and proper management of sewage and wastewater. Ensuringclean foods are available and medicine is all tested in advance of use, has brought a healthy environment. Nevertheless, there is a great deal to do in public health but not much interest.

The Democrats have always been supportive of public health measures and finding a way to finance the individual’s medical care. The Republicans are doubtful that all this money for healthcare should be provided by the government. Typically, they see this kind of support as benefiting non-whites, so they do not like it. They mismanaged the Covid-19 epidemic due to little interest in public health. But there is minimal interest in the election on health issues. The Republican contribution is to express dislike for the current health care financing arrangements while admitting they have no alternative

Racism: The great evil in the core of the United States is slavery and its continuance in the exploitation and ill treatment of black persons. The evidence is overwhelming that for wealth, income, education, and health black Americans are in much poorer condition than whites. This is a direct result of the discrimination in facilities and opportunity. Most Americans do not think this is just, but are unwilling to sacrifice their welfare to correct. There is little progress in taking effective actions to reduce the disparity.

The Democrats have been the leaders in trying to improve the relative condition of the black Americans while the Republicans have fought against these actions. Trump has increased the racism of the Republicans and in doing so has split the American population. The anti-black attitude of Trump goes back to his earlier career as a real estate manager when he was prosecuted by the United States Government for his discrimination against blacks.

The election arguments do not tackle this issue.

Climate change: Most persons are aware of the rising costs of increased levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.There is general scientific agreement that this is a serious problem influencing the future of human civilization.

The Democrats have generally led the efforts to act. Most of the recognition of the challenge of climate change rests with that party. The Republicans apparently do not think this is a serious problem. That party has close ties to the oil industry; that industry financially supports the Republicans and expects support for their policies. The oil industry denies the importance of climate change and the Republicans go along with this position.

In the election the Republicans promised to undo Biden’s work on climate change and to give privileges and hidden subsidies to the oil companies. The Democrats pledge to continue the work that Biden started. On this point the differences are clear between the two parties. 

Military and foreign policy: There is a strong belief in Washington that the United States Military needs a rapid increase in its capabilities, particularly for the Navy. This viewpoint is expressed by both parties. Furthermore, there is a sense held by leaders from both parties that the international conflicts are going to deteriorate. The situation in Palestine and Israel is chaotic but this is less important as there are few people involved. Its importance arises only from the role of the United States. Ukraine and Chinese conflicts are dangerous and present a challenge to either party.

Neither of the candidates has developed a mature policy for dealing with these challenges. Neither has real experience with foreign During Trump’s first term he had no serious issues of war and his behavior was erratic. His national security adviser, his chief of staff and his senior generals all found him erratic and dangerous. Harris has no experience in these issues. There is a very high probability of a major war in the next four years. The two candidates are so weak that the threat of a challenge is very high.

In conclusion, the eight critical issues listed here all call for serious actions. The political parties, the presidential candidates, and the members of Congress have limited interest in these eight matters. The political parties have limited interest and no apparatus for studying policy alternatives. The election discussions are superficial, largely indicating the ignorance of the candidates. We face the danger of serious economic collapse and major war.

 

 

Forrest Cookson is an economist who has served as the first president of AmCham and has been a consultant for the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.