An Analysis of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Mahfuzur Rahman | Source : Daily Sun, 01 February 2025
I went to Bogota in 2012. At that time, the mayor of Bogota was Gustavo Petro. Leftist. Popular. And politically ambitious. It seemed that he might become the president of Colombia at some point. He had contested for it in 2010 but could only secure the fourth place in the race.
As he was once an M-19 armed-guerrilla, no matter how much supports he has from his people, it is not easy to enjoy the humour of such popularity under the nose of the CIA? Ten years later, I learned that Gustavo Petro had just been elected president of Colombia. He had drawn the ire of the Biden administration for pursuing an independent foreign policy from the very beginning. On the other hand, though he quickly improved economic relations with China, he did not join China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
It means, as a leader, Petro was guided by his patriotism and used his acumen in making his choices in bilateral relations. This time, the tension between Colombia and the United States was not unusual given the way the Trump administration had done its homework well before assuming the office and entering the business. However, who knew that Trump would start swinging such a stick within a week of sitting in the White House! Trump’s war on illegal immigrants has made it clear that the U.S. administration will not compromise on its ‘America First’ policy. Trump’s belligerent stance against Colombia on illegal immigrants is a bad signal for other Latin countries.
In order not to anger Trump (especially to escape trade barriers), Latin countries, as well as India and the Philippines, have softened their tone. By his past two weeks’ activities, Trump has clearly indicated that he will do everything he uttered during the election campaign and in the last two months. As a result of Trump’s victory, the Democratic government quickly signed a Hamas-Israel ceasefire agreement before the expiry of its office.
Trump has taken it to a new level with the idea of transferring Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan. It is not that Trump will pressure Egypt and Jordan to do so tomorrow. Again, it is true that Trump did not make such comments without consideration or without thinking. Maybe he wants to appease Israel, maybe he is warning Hamas, maybe he wants to pressure Egypt and Jordan to be more active in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli issue, or maybe he is really directing U.S. policy towards such a Zionist-like plan.
Trump was active in rescuing the Saudi Crown Prince from the embarrassment of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Now, Trump may well seek reward. It has been reported that Trump has already spoken to Mohammed bin Salman over the phone so that Saudi Arabia can quickly convene an OPEC+ meeting. Reducing oil prices will probably be his main agenda. Who knows, if oil prices can be reduced, Russia’s war appetite will decrease. However, no matter how aggressive Trump is, Putin is no less lenient.
During the election campaign, Trump directly promised to end the war in Ukraine. Republicans are not in favour of spending U.S. money on this war. Trump told the same to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the first opportunity. However, what initiative Trump takes to end the war is very important. It does not seem that there will be any benefit in just waving a stick without a genuine carrot with Russia. Rather, without a clear statement from NATO and Ukraine against Ukraine’s NATO-luxury, and without a guarantee of Crimea’s absolute ownership and the autonomy of Donbas, there is no reason for Russia to back down.
Trump’s obsession with Panama, Greenland and even Canada is not just for show, but probably for warming up the pan. There are much deeper reasons behind it. Chinese companies have been involved in the management of the Panama Canal. Chinese companies are also working in Greenland. So, it is natural for the United States to be concerned about them. The other presidents perhaps hid their concern under their decency wall, but thanks to Trump, he has a big mouth to yell.
In this case, Panama is in the most vulnerable position. Trump may continue to put pressure on Panama, either to reduce China’s dominance there or to create a convenient passage for the United States. Neither task is easy. The situation in Greenland is even more complicated. Denmark, the owner of Greenland, is a NATO member. Taking military action or threatening to make military action on behalf of the United States in a member country means challenging NATO’s fundamental basis.
This may not only risk NATO collapsing, but also may polarise most of the remaining NATO members and force them to take a stance against the United States. At this time, America will rather suffer if it loses its allies. Whatever Trump does or does not do, his Western and Latin American allies have already taken the bad taste, as he has included the names of Panama, Greenland and Canada in his speech. Is Trump unaware of the fallouts? Of course, he knows. Trump’s comments are not just crazy.
Republicans are quite good at these things. Nixon ended the Vietnam War in this way. Bush senior brought world leaders into the World Trade Organisation in the same manner. Ronald Reagan was no less. He went to Berlin and addressed Gorbachev to tear down the wall. International political analysts are calling it the madman theory because of the repetitive institutional use of this madness by the Republicans.
China is looming over Trump. He sees a clear shadow of China in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and even in Europe and America itself. This shadow is mainly in international trade. But trade is not outside of politics and culture. As a result, Trump’s madness is not over. Multidimensional trade sanctions against China are nothing new. The United States has tried to stop China’s aggressive trade in various ways over the past fifteen to twenty years.
But it has never understood or accepted that China, or for that matter, the enhancement of the trade capacity of the developing world was not at the mercy of the United States, nor was it to the detriment of the United States. Rather, it is a benefit of globalisation that has brought global welfare. The more trade barriers are created now, the more the American buyers will suffer. The T-shirt that goes from Bangladesh to the United States for fifty cents will then be made by American manufacturers with five dollars.
The worst victims of the Trump administration’s foreign policy will be international organisations. After UNESCO, the United States has already withdrawn from the World Health Organisation. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are being asked by the U.S. administration to take a stringent stance. The global fight against climate change will be compromised. Now, the U.S. may be rapidly withdrawing itself from the World Trade Organisation. If the interferences are there to unnaturally strengthen the dollar’s position as an international currency, the dollar’s alternative will only become stronger. In this, the United States will isolate itself at some point. And as an alternative, the BRICS will quickly secure its place.
Trade barriers or investment barriers against China may rather push the United States backwards. Just as the supply chains that have been built up under the auspices of globalisation have benefited everyone more or less and have been building an interdependent world system that was a safeguard for global stability, Trump’s ultra-nationalist policies will either break that world system or deprive the United States of its benefits.
Although Trump’s four-year term or policies alone will not radically change the entire world system, such policies will encourage hardline policies in many parts of the world and will provoke global isolationism against the overall global welfare. Capitalism-imperialism has exposed its limitations many times, but given the rise of world crises, Trump’s foreign policy will only complicate it.
Countries like Bangladesh must continue to provide moral support to international organisations to keep those alive. We must voice that the system of interdependence coming out of globalisation is ensuring world development, justice and welfare. We must take a stand for world humanity, mutual friendship and peace. In any world order, people must be kept at the centre. And we must be vocal in favour of human freedom, that is, the right of people to move freely and work everywhere.
The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador