Indo-Pak tension worryingly getting worse
Tasnia Tasnim Hossain [Source :
The dreadful Pahelgam terror attack on 22 April 2025 resulting in the brutal killing of as many as twenty-six tourists, including a Nepalese traveler and a local pony rider, undoubtedly shocked the world. And this attack has now dragged the two mortal enemies, Pakistan and India, into armed conflict.
An outfit known as the Resistance Front claimed responsibility. According to Indian officials, the group is a Pakistan-based proxy for Lashkar-E-Taiba (LeT). The incident was succeeded by the usual Indian accusations of Pakistani involvement, followed by equally expected Pakistani denials and calls for neutral investigations.
Amid the blame game, Dipankar Bhattacharya, leader of India's CPI (ML) Liberation, raised a pertinent point in an article published by The Print on 29 April 2025. He reminded that during the UPA era, then-Gujarat CM Narendra Modi had questioned PM Manmohan Singh about how terrorists could breach Indian borders at will despite claims of tight control. Bhattacharya now suggests similar accountability be demanded of the current Indian Premier.
The international community urged calm. The UN called on both India and Pakistan to exercise "maximum restraint" and resolve disputes peacefully. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held separate talks with both Indian and Pakistani officials on 30 April, emphasizing regional stability. China, too, called for dialogue. Meanwhile, Iran offered mediation and Saudi Arabia claimed to be working to de-escalate the tension. India also briefed the Afghan Taliban regime about the incident through MEA Joint Secretary Anand Prakash-an unusual but telling diplomatic move.
Prime Minister Modi vowed a "befitting response," declaring India would "identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers." Immediate Indian actions included suspending air connectivity, expelling diplomats, and most notably, threats to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, causing a sudden surge in Jhelum River's water level. The Indian Navy carried out large-scale exercises in the Arabian Sea, while the Air Force conducted Exercise Aakraman featuring Rafale jets.
While both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, their doctrines diverge. India maintains a "No First Use" policy. Pakistan's Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD), however, includes the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons-such as Hatf missiles (0.5-5 kiloton warheads)-in response to conventional threats. This raises the risk of even a limited conflict escalating into a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Yet, analysts like Imtiaz Gul of Islamabad's Center for Research and Security Studies dismiss the possibility of full-scale war, citing nuclear deterrence as a restraining factor.
Methodical dismantling of cross-border terror infrastructure using various tools at India's disposal. Building international support to avoid diplomatic isolation. Exploiting vulnerabilities within Pakistan's political and military structures. Evaluating India's own nuclear capabilities in the face of possible Pakistani tactical nuke usage. Preparing for domestic insurgency risks, especially in the volatile North-Eastern states. Past Indian actions provide precedent. The 2016 surgical strike neutralized militant camps across the LoC. In 2019, the Pulwama bombing led to the Balakot airstrike deep inside Pakistan, escalating tensions to near-war levels.
Now, various potential responses are on the table. Probable targets include LeT camps near Muzaffarabad, logistics hubs on the Muzaffarabad-Rawalakot road, and strategic military sites like missile launchers. These high-value targets could inflict military damage while avoiding civilian casualties to limit international blowback. Surgical strikes by Special Forces remain a strong option.
As of late April 2025, Indian airbases in Pathankot and Amritsar are on high alert. Satellite imagery shows Su-30MKIs equipped with BrahMos ALCMs ready for low-altitude, night-time missions. Alongside airstrikes, missile options include the Prithvi series, the Pralay missile, and the Shourya hypersonic missile-each capable of hitting both battlefield and strategic targets.
Another proposed response is targeted assassinations of high-value figures in groups like LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed. These operations require minimal presence and can carry significant strategic impact while keeping deniability intact. A bolder option could be a limited ground incursion to capture territory for strategic leverage or to create a buffer zone, reminiscent of India's 1965 military movements near Lahore.
Pakistan, on its part, has ramped up readiness along the LoC. Its military has been authorized to use heavy artillery, and the air force is on standby. Strategic weapons like Shaheen-III and short-range Nasr missiles have been positioned as a deterrent. Pakistan also test-fired the 450 km-range Abdali missile on 3 May, signaling its preparedness.
The most likely Indian response to the Pahelgam attack will likely be through limited and targeted air or missile strike against specific militant camps, to send a strong message without prompting a larger conflict. Pakistan will mostly likely depend on its air defences and carefully measured military responses, trying to avoid a nuclear option. However, time will say what reality becomes.
The writer is an International Relations (IR) Student at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP)