Syrian crisis hits Mideast

The impact of Syria's domestic politics is spreading to other countries in the Middle East. The two parties, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led by Ahmed al-Shara and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) led by Mazloum Abdi, control eighty-five percent of Syrian politics. The political stability of the new Syria after Bashar al-Assad depends largely on the two parties.

 

 

The most complex issue is the equation of the current and future relationship between the two parties. This relationship is particularly significant in military, ethnic, ideological, regional and geopolitical considerations. This relationship is also related to the future structure of Syria beyond Bashar al-Assad's circle. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, there has been a new polarization in Syrian politics. The division of a society or political system into two opposing camps is called polarization of politics. There is no opportunity to take a middle position in the polarized politics of the new Syria. 

Divided Syria is currently divided into two regions. The first region covers the largest part of the country. The main leader of this largest part is Ahmed al-Shara. The new administration under his leadership has many small and large, loyal or in-process groups under its control. The main task of these loyal groups is to join Ahmed al-Shara's new army and cooperate spontaneously. On the other hand, its second region covers almost a quarter of Syria.

 

 

The control of the second part is vested in the SDF group led by Mazloum Abdi. The second region of Syria, controlled by Mazloum Abdi, has an autonomous administration. It has a special structural governance system. It has most of Syria's natural resources, including water, oil, gas and grain. It has border connections with Turkey and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

 

In view of the hostile situation and sensitivity in Syria, a secret meeting was held between Ahmed al-Shara and Mazloum Abdi. Although the meeting was held in secret, its details have now become public. This meeting, held in Damascus, laid the foundation for mutual understanding and friendship between the two sides. Some information has recently been added to the official website of the newly formed Damascus administration. From that information, it is known that SDF leader Mazloum Abdi strongly recommended the inclusion of fighters for 70321 as soldiers in the new Syrian army.

 

 

However, the condition is that Turkish members under the control of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) must be handed over to Ankara. Dozens of identified non-Syrian leaders must be expelled. The power of the government-backed Kurdistan Workers' Party must be decentralized. The autonomous administration must be dissolved as soon as Kurdish rights are agreed upon. Damascus' strategic assets must be returned. Control of Syria's borders with Türkiye and Iraq must be transferred to the central government. Relations with the US-led international coalition must be strengthened.

 

 

 

The Qamishli delegation presented a counter-proposal at the much-discussed and much-discussed meeting. Qamishli is a city in Hasakah province in northeastern Syria. It is a city near the Turkish and Iraqi borders. The city is mainly inhabited by Kurdish, Arab, Assyrian and Armenian populations. Qamishli is an important center of the Kurdish region of Syria (Rojava). During the Syrian civil war, it came under the control of a Kurdish-led administration. However, parts of the city are also under the control of Syrian government forces.

 

 

The Qamishli delegation's proposal is that the SDF will only function as a military bloc in the new Syrian army. SDF fighters will operate in their own areas in northeastern Syria, preserving the structure of the autonomous administration. A certain part of the strategic assets should be reserved for Qamishli. Military control should be maintained on the border. Kurdish participation should be ensured in the preparatory committee for the national dialogue. Clear constitutional recognition of Kurdish rights should be provided.

 

SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has agreed to take steps on several issues, including raising a new flag in Syria, handing over civilian border crossings in Damascus, and regaining control over government-held "security squares" in Qamishli and Hasakah. Above all, both sides have agreed to form a negotiating committee for the second round of talks. The controversial role of Western mediators between Damascus and Qamishli has also come to the fore.

 

 

However, in the talks, everyone agreed to focus on ending Syria's political instability and on development. Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani invited Mazloum Abdi in coordination with Turkey. Mazloum Abdi expressed satisfaction with Masoud Barzani's hospitality in Erbil. He also called for talks on organizing Kurdish forces in Syria and the expansion of the PKK.

 

Why has the SDF's position suddenly become tough again? Some of the mediators in the talks believe that the HTF's flexibility is one of the reasons for the SDF's difficult position. This change is being seen as an obstacle to development. From the signals given by the Qamishli administration, it is assumed that the Trump administration is provoking the Syrian Kurds and the SDF. The SDF's military capabilities, ideological commitment and public expectations, as well as Mazloum Abdi's stubborn attitude, are repeatedly creating contradictions in Syrian politics. Again, Damascus seems to be dependent on different calculations.

 

The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the defeat of ISIS have brought the SDF to the center of political discussions on Syria. Experts believe that Syria will return to normal very soon if the Western sanctions are lifted with the combined efforts of several thousand trained intellectuals, the warm influence of Damascus in the Middle East, Western support, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a strong intellectual ideology, and the overall efforts of several thousand trained intellectuals.

 

 

Within the SDF, there is a hostile mentality among Arab tribes and Arab factions. The internal rebellions of these factions are a cause for concern for the SDF. The Turkish-backed "National Army" works to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish entity in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attitude towards the Kurds is sometimes repressive and sometimes strategic. The world has seen the changing form of Erdogan's decisions according to the situation and political interests. However, in recent years, his policy appears to be mostly anti-Kurdish and military campaign-based.

 

Syria after Bashar al-Assad has brought about major changes in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Syria has long been a close ally of Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, this axis has begun to have a direct impact. The failure of the weak government in charge after the fall of Bashar al-Assad may allow groups like al-Qaeda or ISIS to become active again. This increases the security risk for the entire region. Whose influence the current Syrian government falls under depends on domestic politics, the military situation, and the role of international powers. However, it is certain that post-Assad Syria is spreading the wind of change in the geopolitical equation of the Middle East.

 

A few weeks ago, Ahmed al-Shara and Mazloum Abdi prioritized talks on relations between Damascus and Qamishli. Despite public threats, peaceful alternatives remain on the table. Although organizing a party-based dialogue is difficult, any dialogue paves the way for a solution. The current political crisis in Syria must be resolved by ensuring the representation of political and ethnic groups. An acceptable constitution must be urgently drafted and political reforms must be ensured. A democratic and transparent electoral process must be launched based on public opinion.

 

The political crisis in Syria is a matter of international concern. One must reach a diplomatic settlement as soon as possible with international parties such as the UN, NATO, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, other important countries in the Middle East, and the United States. The international community must make more effective efforts to establish a lasting peace in this war-torn country.

 

 

The writer is a teacher, Cantonment Board High School,  Shahid Salahuddin Cantonment, Ghatail, Tangail