Ukraine in Crisis

Where will Ukraine go now? Does Ukraine have many options? So far, the moral and financial support of the United States and Europe has been helping the Ukrainian government, especially President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the war against Russia. But Trump’s regain of power in the United States is changing everything. Usually, no country radically changes its foreign policy with the change of the government. But Zelenskyy did not understand that Donald Trump would make such a U-turn after securing the White House for the second term. The poor guy is new to politics, let alone international politics or diplomacy. This time, his leadership, patience and skill are really being tested. What can Ukraine do then!

In this situation, it is difficult for Ukraine to get out of the trap set up by the United States. It is true that the U.S. has given billions of dollars to Ukraine in the past three years in terms of arms, ammunition, food, logistics, etc. The Congress had overwhelming support for all of these. Be it Republicans or Democrats, all have supported Ukraine’s cause against Russia. According to Trump himself, Ukraine received US$350 billion from U.S. foreign aid funds. But aid is not the only sector. In the case of war, many sectors are in play. Many of the funds are not audited. Many are not made public. That is why the amount of American money that went to Ukraine cannot be easily traced. Well, Trump is not interested in tracking or investigating. 

He is only interested in getting an instant return on the amount that the U.S. has so far invested, and will also look for some premiums. The easiest way is to get his hands on Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. The United States may be able to extract a few trillion from this. The US proposal regarding the extraction of rare earth mineral resources has been on Ukraine’s table for some time. Ukraine was not giving up on it easily. This time, Trump has already weakened Zelenskyy with contradictory words and rhetoric to compel Ukraine to hand over mineral resources to the United States without any further ado. Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator, a criminal and an illegal president. Trump has also belittled Europe. Ukraine’s NATO dream has been called a daydream. And recently, at the United Nations, the representative of the United States refused to call Russia’s war against Ukraine unjust. It rather put false (!) blame on Ukraine for initiating the war.

In Saudi Arabia, when the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was negotiating with the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, it might seem like a fight between the two superpowers, just like the same one during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. But on the one hand, it was more unequal than the situation during the Cold War. Marco Rubio has barely taken on the responsibility of the U.S. State Department. On the other hand, Lavrov has been in charge of Russia’s foreign affairs for twenty years since 2004.

Vladimir Putin, the Soviet President, will also be considered more experienced than many heads of state in the West. As a result, it was easy during the discussions in Saudi Arabia for Sergey Lavrov to be strict with the three positions that Russia advocated for previously. Firstly, Russia will not move away from what it occupied in Ukraine. Secondly, the international sanctions that were imposed against Russia must be removed. And thirdly, Ukraine will not be allowed to be a member of NATO in any way. On the other hand, the U.S. interest is only limited to stopping the war and quickly getting back the money that the U.S. has invested in Ukraine (in the war) in the last three years. 

The United States has already chosen the easiest way to recover the investment, and the target is the rare earth mineral deposits of Ukraine. The U.S. knew it would have been difficult to reach the target if it had included Europe in the deal. In such a scenario, it might even be difficult to convince Ukraine as well. Even Ukraine is sidelined. Keeping Ukraine at the negotiating table seemed pointless. The United States rather preferred to overpower Ukraine once everything was settled with Russia. What the United States will do with Ukraine, is through pressure, not through negotiations.
The interesting thing is, if Zelenskyy is not legal in his chair now, then in what entity the United States will ask him to pen a deal on the mining activities! Because, at some point in the future, a different government or parliament of Ukraine may overrule his deeds.

What is the rare earth mineral in Ukraine? Where exactly the United States has put its eyes? It is known that Ukraine has many rare minerals of Lanthanide groups, including lanthanum, cerium and praseodymium. Lanthanum is needed in the electrical industry, petroleum refineries and steelmaking. The use of cerium is almost the same. Praseodymium is used in the glass industry. All these are related to the nuclear industry and robotics.

The United States follows the pragmatic school in diplomacy. It does what is necessary when. There is no place for ideals here. The steps taken by Trump need to be looked at from this angle. I will take the recent speech of Bangladesh’s army chief exactly in the same style. When he spoke, he also followed the pragmatic school.

He wanted to restrain those who had come to believe in revolutionary change in the face of the resistance of the students and the public which had a queue from the historic student movement against discrimination in July-August 2024. He also wanted to restrain those who wanted the radical destruction of the structure which was mostly tainted and exploited by the previous government. He clearly stated the reason as to refrain from doing anything that would challenge the sovereignty of the country.

A policy of over-dependency on others like the way Ukraine had pursued does not bring good to any country. Rather it exposes the country’s vulnerability. Welfare for the country cannot be ensured by kneeling or submitting. Therefore, being more pragmatic is better for all of us. Bangladesh must stand as an independent, neutral and sovereign state. It must remain faithful to its own interests without succumbing to anyone’s provocation and without becoming a pawn in anyone’s game.